What-If Campaigns: America 1816

[Elxaime]

Here is a version 2, which assumes that, aside from the British victory on Lake Champlain, everything else went according to history.  The respective armies are smaller.  This one is a bit more plausible than the wilder, alternative history first version.  The main barriers to something like this happening IRL was that by 1816 both sides were weary of war, the British blockade was inflicting real harm on the US economy, and Wellington was pretty entrenched in his belief that further war in America would be pointless.

In September 1814, catching the American lake flotilla by surprise, British Captain Downie won a stunning naval victory that cemented complete British control of Lake Champlain.  The news struck the American and British delegates meeting at Ghent in the Kingdom of the Netherlands for peace negotiations like a thunderclap.  Britain immediately terminated negotiations, seeing an opening for a decisive campaign the next year downriver designed to detach the northeastern states of the US and incorporate them into Canada.  The invasion would include veteran British troops released for North American service by the Treaty of Fontainebleau of April 11, 1814, and the subsequent abdication of Napoleon and his exile to Elba.  The unexpected victory on the lake moved the Duke of Wellington, who remained skeptical of the prospects for further war with the United States, to accept the offer to command the expedition, which would start out in the spring of 1815.  This would be of a punitive nature, designed to better position Britain for negotiations where she still entertained the possibility of territorial concessions.  British intentions were made firmer by the disastrous defeat on January 8, 1815, of their attempt to capture New Orleans (although Mobile, Alabama, was secured as a consolation prize).  The rustic Americans could not be allowed to think they could tweak the tail of the lion without consequence!

Planning for Wellington's campaign in North America was upended by the shocking news of Napoleon's escape from Elba in early 1815.  The Congress of Vienna immediately declared the Corsican an outlaw.  Wellington and the troops intended for America instead headed for the low countries.  In June, the Allied Army led by Wellington, in partnership with the Prussian Army led by Blucher, defeated Napoleon in a series of bloody battles culminating on the field of Waterloo.  On June 22, 1815, Napoleon abdicated for a second time.

Finally rid of Napoleon once and for all, Britain resumed preparations for an invasion of America from Canada.  This campaign was now rescheduled for early 1816.  Naval supremacy on the Great Lakes was strengthened.  The victors of Waterloo would finally deal with the American upstarts.

For the American campaign of 1816, Wellington would lead an army almost as heterogenous as the one he commanded at Waterloo.  A core of veteran infantry and cavalry regiments from the Peninsular War and Waterloo would form the main weight, backed by well-served artillery.  The rest of the numbers would be filled out by Canadian militia and Native American allies.  There was some chance of raising pro-British local Americans as he advanced, given the lukewarm attitude of many to the continuation of a war with Britain that was so ruinous to their mercantile trade.  Nonetheless, although he expected to be outnumbered, Wellington was confident he could avoid the fate of British General Burgoyne's 1777 campaign, during the Revolutionary War, where "Gentleman Johnny" was surrounded by rapidly assembling American militias, who forced his surrender.  American leadership on land throughout the War of 1812 had proven dismal, with a few exceptions.  Those exceptions now commanded parts of the United States defenses.  General Jackson, victor of New Orleans, commanded in the southern states, from whence he would be expected to reinforce the north in the event of an invasion from Canada.  The newly breveted Major General Winfield Scott, who had acquitted himself well in battle at Lundy's Lane the previous year, but was still only 30 years old, commanded American troops in the north.  

In February 1816, Wellington's planning was almost complete, and he was just awaiting the arrival of his last reinforcements.  With nearly 35,000 men, he would command the largest army assembled by Great Britain on the American continent since the War of Independence.  The morale of the troops was satisfactory, having recovered from the New Orleans debacle, although war weariness was already creeping in.  Thankfully, by intention, this campaign was to be relatively brief.

Meeting in near panic in early March, the US Congress worked to provide reinforcements for General Scott from all quarters.  The American forces massing in upstate New York under Scott would initially be outnumbered by the British invasion host.  However, the growing core of American regulars, now almost equivalent to the performance of European peers, could be expected to give a good account of themselves.  The bulk of the American army would remain the militias, which varied wildly in quality and armament.  The best of them were the backwoods rifle-armed battalions - deadly accurate with their long-ranged weapons.  There would also be a reinforcement of field artillery - batteries of guns taken off blockaded American warships and manned by their now-landlocked, but elite sailor crews.  The U.S. Marines had likewise been transferred to the army command, and now formed a brigade of their own.  Beyond that, the American militia could be counted on to give Scott something he sorely needed - numbers.  Once the invasion began, it was assumed that the forces in Alabama under Jackson, the hero of New Orleans, would be sent to reinforce Scott.  This should provide the Americans significant numerical superiority and a chance to counterattack.  It was expected that Jackson, once he arrived, would assume overall command.  Plans were also afoot to enable guerilla warfare in the rear of the British invaders, including with the help of Native Americans loyal to the U.S.

Wellington and his officers were not overconfident.  They knew this would be a difficult campaign.  But many of the officers champed to overturn the outcome of New Orleans.  By late March, as the weather warmed up, Wellington began to put his forces in motion.  As Scott pored over his maps in Albany, word came that the Iron Duke was on the march.  He sent letters to the President, to General Jackson in Montgomery, and to the US Congress, and grimly mustered his forces.

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