NGP85 "81: Better Dead than Red v1.1"

[JDR Dragoon]

Players musings after the first 24 hours of combat:

Well, the first day has elapsed and results are positive, albeit somewhat mixed. The attack definitely hit before I was fully ready: The REFORGER units needed to backstop both American Corps sectors had not arrived yet, and the obstacle plans in all three Corps sectors had not been completed either.



This is the overall situation after 24 hours. As can be seen, the GE III Korps and US V Corps sectors are holding good and I have only been forced to give up small strips of territory in these sectors. In the US VII Corps sector the situation is less than ideal, although not critical. The pressure here has forced me to give up a lot of ground, in order to avoid my units being cut off and destroyed against the southern edge of the map (in a larger campaign this would not have been important, since I would have been able to retreat to the south/southwest into the areas that are currently off-map). The blue squares moving from the NATO rear towards the front are german Territorialheer units and REFORGER brigades from the 4th ID. The deep blue line moving N-S in the NATO rear is the Rhine river. The yellow squares are objectives (the most important of which are, not surprisingly, in the NATO rear, clustered on or near the Rhine)

Just to recap my current dispositions and likely threats, since a lot has happened in this regard:

To the north the West German III Korps is holding a line north along the Fulda and Weser Rivers. The Covering Force battle is still ongoing here, so the enemy has been bled without even having seen my main line of defence yet. The GE III Korps consists of:

-2. Panzergrenadier Division
-5. Panzer Division.
-Luftlandebrigade 25.
-Corps troops (Artillery Brigade, Anti-Tank Helicopter Battalion, Engineer Brigade, Long-Range Recon Company)

They are faced with the Polish 2nd Army/Slaski Military Dictrict composed of:

-2. Mechanized Division.
-4. Mechanized Division.
-5. Armor Division.
-10. Armor Division.
-Likely another division.
-Army Troops (Engineer Brigade, Antitank Regiment, Artillery Brigade).

Overall things aren´t looking to bad here, even if it turns out he has a fifth division. The odds are, at worst, 2:1 against me, with the terrain on my sides (plenty of rivers, hills and low mountains with easily blocked roads to facilitate my defence). In addition, the polish units are mostly equipped with older equipment which is easier to kill. Unless he gets lucky or reinforces his forces here I am confident that I can hold.

In the US V Corps sector the situation is somewhat similar. About half the Corps sector is buttressed by the Fulda River, with the remainder anchored on the low mountains of the Rhön. The only really open piece of ground is through the Fulka Gap itself, and that is blocked by my forces. The Covering Force is battle mostly over here though, and the enemy is about to test my main defensive line. The US V Corps consist of:

-3rd Armored Division
-8th Infantry Division
-11th Armored Cavalry Regiment
-Corps Troops (2xArtillery Brigades, Engineer Brigade, Attack Helicopter Battalion)
-A company of Special Forces (strictly not part of V Corps, but operating in the sector).

They are faced with the attacking 8th Guards Army composed of:

-20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division.
-39th Guards Motorized Rifle Division.
-57th Guards Motorized Rifle Division
-Likely a fourth, possibly East German, division
-Army Troops (Engineer Brigade, Artillery Brigade, Antitank Regiment, Attack Helicopter Regiment)

Again, things are hardly critical here. Odds are about 3:2 and even if there is an extra divison lurking it is no worse than 2:1, and again the terrain here is on my side. I feel conficent of holding here as well, even if the soviet units are better than the polish, since I can likely dish out more damage to him faster than he can to me. The thing that might slew the odds against me here would be the commitment of some kind of airborne envelopment or the appeareance of more troops (DUH!).

In the US VII Corps sector things are looking less rosy. The Covering Force battles are mostly over, I have been forced to cede defensible ground voluntarily and the odds are stacked against me. In addition, the terrain I was hoping to anchor my defence on has proved either indefensible due to lack of numbers or have been compromised by enemy troops airlanding behind me. This has put my ability to hold my main defensive line here into question, and I might have to fall back. The US VII Corps consist of:

-GE 12. Panzer Division
-US 3rd Infantry Division
-US 1st Infantry Division (only one brigade present, rest arriving later)
-US 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment.
-US 194th Armored Brigade (arriving later)
-US 4th Infantry Division (3 brigades plus divisional troops moving up, 1 brigade still to arrive from the US). Attached from US V Corps.
-1st Battalion/75th Ranger Regiment.
-GE Wehrbereichskommando IV (parts), consisting of artillery brigade, 2 mechanized brigades, and an engineer brigade.
-GE Wehrberiechskommando VI (parts), consisting of a motorized infantry regiment.

They are facing two WAPA armies. First up is the 1st Guards Tank Army:

-79th Guards Tank Division
-9th Tank Division
-27th Motorized Rifle Division
-6th Guards Tank Division
-7th Guards Tank Division
-106th Guards Airborne Division (probably not strictly part of 1st GTA, but I am counting it here for the purpose of calculating the correlation of forces)
-Army Troops (Engineer Brigade, Artillery Brigade, Antitank Regiment, Attack Helicopter Regiment)

Second is the East German 3. Army/Militärbezirk III:

-4. Motschützendivision
-7. Panzerdivision
-Likely a third division
-Possibly a fourth (based on the number of HQs shown by SIGINT).
-Army Troops (Engineer Brigade, Artillery Brigade, Antitank Regiment, Attack Helicopter Regiment)

The odds are bad here at the moment. I have at least 8-10 divisions attacking into the US VII Corps sector at the moment, with more possibly lying in wait, and I have but the equivalent of 3 division with which to oppose them. In addition most of these enemy divisions are Tank Divisions with a very large number of modern T64 tanks, which are equal or better than my own tanks. In the short term I will be reinforced here with 4 brigades more (2 from 4th ID, 2 Heimatshützbrigades), which will bring my numbers up to 4.3 divisions and the odds to a more managable 2:1 (the W-German Heimatschütz units are partially composed of reservists though, and might be a bit shaky if not anchored on the defence). In the end, once all reinforcements have arrived in this sector in 48 hours, my strenght will rise to 5.6 divisions and the odds will fall to 3:2, which should ensure that his offensive here fails, barring any more enemy troops showing up of course.
The problem here is, that I am momentarily caught wrong-footed, both by my lack of forces, but also by him landing an entire division behind me. Most of this airlanded units are foot-mobile, but there is also assault guns and infantry mounted in BMD fighting vehicles present. I am still hoping to hold along the Main river between Schweinfurt and Bamberg, but if the worst comes to the worst, I will have to retreat back behind the next bend in the Main river (between Würzburg and Schweinfurt, where the Main river has a peculiar run, from running N to S, then running towards the NE, before bending again at Schweinfurt and running SE towards Bamberg. If push comes to shove I will then withdraw behind the Main river at Würzburg, with the line between here and Fulda buttressed by the low Rhön mountains.

Remaining units of the W-German Territorialheer are guarding the V-hexes in the rear from any coup-descent by enemy airborne or special forces.

As regards the Sudden-Death-Victory Condition (I must loose less than 10000 points from objectives to WAPA before turn 33), this is looking relatively good as well. We are currently at turn 22, with another day (11 turns) to go. I have so far lost 3000 points from Göttingen (in the northern GE III Korps sector), Coburg and Hof (both in the southern US VII Corps sector), although all three locations have been give up voluntarily as indefensible. I am likely to lose another 1000 points from Schweinfurt in the near future, since I likely cannot prevent the 106th GABD from taking the city. The one place I absolutely cannot afford to lose here is Kassel in the GE III Korps sector, since it is both worth 5000 points and lies near the border (the Fulda river runs through it). I can still afford to lose cities like Fulda and Bamberg, since those are only worth 1000 points a piece.

Overall the situation is far from hopeless. I have issued a facekicking to my opponent and caused far greater casulaties than I have suffeered. On top of this one REFORGER division (4th ID) has almost arrived and the remainder (1st ID(-) plus the 194th Armored Brigade) will arrive in 36 hours. In addition, the number of strike-missions I have available will continue to rise in the next couple of days, as more fighter-bombers (mostly USAF F-4 Phantoms) will fly in from the US. If I can only hold on for another day, the sudden death victory condition will disappear, and I will get another division with which to kick my opponent. Once this happens I should be able to hold my own at the very least and possibly even be able to conduct small counterattacks in order to restore my defensive line.

That was it. Bring on the second day!