NGP85 "81: Better Dead than Red v1.1"

[JDR Dragoon]

092200Z May 1981

FROM CENTAG G2
TO COMCENTAG

RE: Recent developments in the intelligence picture in the GE III Korps sector.

During the last 18 hours, since 0400 this morning, alarming developments have been taking place in front of CENTAG. Similar reports have also filtered in from NORTHAG and BALTAP. The following intelligence has mostly been gleaned from signals reconnaisance, but also from ground and air search radar, in some cases coupled with direct observations by our ground units near the border.

The first report is from 0400 this morning and shows what we believe to be WAPA divisional headquarters moving towards the border. Peculiarities in language leads us to believe that we are dealing with Polish units.



During the following four hours even more HQs are detected moving towards the border. The transmission frequency and strenght allows us some guesses towards their nature.




At 1000, West German helicopters observe a polish reconnaisance unit that seems to be initiating the demolition of the border obstacles.





During the next 8 hours this picture intensifies. Not only is an increasing number of HQs being identified close to the border, but a BMP equipped Motorrifle unit has been positively identified in the process of dismantling the border defences near Witzenhausen.












With the coming of darkness at 2000, direct observation of the border becomes impossible, but the latest signals and radar intelligence suggests that WAPA HQs continue to deploy closely towards the border.






Based on the above, the immediate threat to the West German III Korps seems to consist of a Polish army, with 2-3 divisions in its first echelon, ready to advance from assembly areas near Mühlhausen and Heiligenstadt. It is estimated that each major axis of advance (which seems to coinside with the major roads) will consist of at least one division, possibly two in the assembly area near Heiligenstadt. It is estimated that these units are capable of initiating an attack with only the most minimal warning.