NATO, WAPA and the indefensibility of LandJut in NGP and D85

[Hans Boersma]

Excellent thread gentlemen, thanks.

JDR, a few questions (for the 1985 period):

1. Did the motorized infantry in the Jutland Battle Group have the same armament as the mot/mech infantry in the Jutland Division?

2. Do you know the unit strength for Engineer companies?

Regarding the question whether the WP / Soviets could pull off a surprise attack I think the political dimension shouldn't be forgotten: the fact that it would be hard or impossible to surprise NATO does not necessarily mean that NATO forces would be ready. Mobilizing or moving units to defence positions would be a political decision, not a military one; and it is not unthinkable that for whatever reason NATO, or members of NATO*, would hesitate to take that step, being perceived as escalating the crisis at hand where diplomatic efforts might be perceived as not yet exhausted.

*NATO had a general warning system (Military Vigilance -> Simple Alert -> Reinforced Alert -> General Alert) but as far as I know it was, in the end, the decision of each member state to mobilize their forces or not. It is not completely unthinkable that for instance nations with strong pacifistic undercurrents like Denmark and the Netherlands would, in certain circumstances, hesitate to mobilize their forces for the reason given above; and the armies of these two countries were very mobilisation-dependent. Of course the Soviets would have to play it very skilfully (which seems unlikely in itself) since NATO would go very far to uphold unity; a situation where for instance West-Germany would mobilize and the Netherlands wouldn't would present NATO with a disastrous internal crisis. But upholding unity might also mean not taking (all) the measures that would seem appropriate from a purely military point of view. Also it is not unthinkable that NATO would hesitate to mobilize / have its forces take up defence positions for instance if a crisis had in some way been caused by NATO and it would feel responsible for reducing tension.

Cheers,

Hans