Thoughts on Disruption/Broken recovery...

[Ricky B]

Based on the rules you captured, including the second item which I didn't know existed, the results you show make sense to me, since no matter what a unit has a 50% chance of checking for recovery, even when 100 hexes away. With that surprise (to me) accounted for, it definitely indicates that that impact of the range test is actually more negligible than fatigue impacts, low ammo, etc that lower current morale, which I do believe is used for the final test.

And rather than reviewing formulas where what you say makes sense, I set up a test scenario with 10 A rated German units, disrupted, with the HQ at quite a distance away. In 7 tests, I got 4 recovered once, 9 at the high end, and in between. The average had to be close to the 70% you show, although not at exactly 15 hexes.

So I am comfortable that your calcs are correct.