When the offense wins 15 percent of time regardless of the odds, I'm wondering how often the elaborate EA formula even comes into play. If you win by the third or fourth assault, you might have won on the basis of the 15-percent provision (a lucky roll of the dice) and not on the basis of the EA formula finally kicking in.
Although assaults are harder to win, no one is suggesting the winning percentage is anywhere near 15 percent, so the EA formula is kicking in to a degree. Still, I think it's getting diluted by the 15 percent provision. Even with the 15 percent provision, the winning percentage doesn't appear to be that phenominal. If the overall winning percentage is 45 percent, then would it be wrong to conclude that one out of three winning assaults are the result of the 15 percent provision? Even if the winning pecentage is 60 percent, that's one out of four.
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